Multiple criteria decision analysis with consideration to place-specific values in participatory forest planning

The combination of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and participatory planning is an approach that has been applied in complex planning situations where multiple criteria of very different natures are considered, and several stakeholders or social groups are involved. The spatial character of forest planning problems adds further to the complexity, because a large number of forest stands are to be assigned different treatments at different points in time. In addition, experience from participatory forest planning indicates that stakeholders may think about the forest in terms of place-specific values rather than in forest-wide terms. The objective of this study was to present an approach for including place-specific values in MCDA-based participatory forest planning and illustrate the approach by a case study where the objective was to choose a multipurpose forest plan for an area of urban forest in northern Sweden. Stakeholder values were identified in interviews, and maps were used to capture place-specific spatial values. The nonspatial and nonplace-specific spatial values were formulated as criteria and used to build an objective hierarchy describing the decision situation. The place-specific spatial values were included in the creation of a map showing zones of different silvicultural management classes, which was used as the basis for creation of forest plan alternatives in the subsequent process. The approach seemed to work well for capturing place-specific values, and the study indicates that formalized methods for including and evaluating place-specific values in participatory forest planning processes should be developed and tested further

An integrated MCDA software application for forest planning : a case study in southwestern Sweden

Forest planning in Sweden today translates not only into planning of timber production, but also for the provision of other functions and services. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods provide a way to take also non-monetary values into account in planning. The purpose of this study was to gain experience on how to use a forest decision support system combined with an MCDA tool in practical forestry. We used a new forest planning tool, PlanWise, which includes an integrated MCDA module, PlanEval. Using the software, the decision maker can compare different forest plans and evaluate them against his/her objectives in a structured and analytical manner. The analysis thus provides a ranking of the alternatives based on the individual preferences of the decision maker. PlanEval and the MCDA planning process are described in a case study, where the manager of a forest estate in southwestern Sweden used the program to compare different forest plans made for the estate. In the paper, we analyze possibilities and challenges of this approach and identify problems such as the adherence to formal requirements of MCDA techniques and the difficulty of comparing maps. Possibilities to expedite an MCDA planning process further are also discussed. The findings confirm that integration of an MCDA tool with a forest decision support system is valuable, but requires expert assistance to be successful

Overview of the PlanWise application and examples of its use

There are many demands on forests today, such as producing wood and bioenergy, maintaining biodiversity, providing attractive recreational settings, and mitigating climate. These objectives are partly in conflict with each other, and management strategies differ in how much they contribute to each of these objectives. Therefore, there is a need to assess the long-term consequences of different management strategies on e.g. indicators for different ecosystem services and biodiversity. One important tool to do such assessments are forest decision support systems (DSS), i.e. ‘computer-based systems that help decision makers to analyse and solve ill-structured problems’ (Vacik et al. 2015). Methodologically, DSS can be classified into three groups: DSS based on simulation, DSS based on optimization, and DSS used for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this context, simulation means that forest management rules are specified, and the outcome is based on an application of these rules (Nobre et al. 2016). The simulator thus projects the likely development of the forest, and the resulting ecosystem services under pre-defined management rules. Simulators are useful for answering “what if” questions, i.e., for assessing the consequences of a limited set of pre-defined management alternatives. The advantage of simulation approaches lies in the relative ease of formulating the problem and interpreting the output. Simulation approaches are useful for projecting the consequences of a limited set of predefined scenarios. DSS based on optimization, in contrast, generate a large set of alternatives from which the best alternative is selected using an optimising algorithm based on the goals and constraints of the planning problem. These kinds of DSS can be used for answering “How to” questions, i.e., for finding the optimal way to reach certain objectives. Optimisation problems thus require that the user defines forest management goals and constraints rather than strict management rules. Both simulation and optimization approaches can be used to generate a number of scenarios, which can be used in a MCDA approach to identify the solution that best fits decision makers’ preference’s for different objectives. MCDA is the collective term for a set of mathematical methods and approaches used to find solutions to decision problems with multiple conflicting objectives. In Sweden, the forest DSS most widely used in research, education and at forest companies for producing long-term plans and making analysis related to forest and forestry is Heureka. The Heureka forest DSS was developed at SLU and the first 1. Introduction 7 version was released in 2009 (Wikström et al. 2011). The system includes three applications that are designed to be used for different types of analysis and at different spatial levels and one application that helps compare scenarios (such as different long-term forest management plans) using MCDA. StandWise is an interactive simulator for stand-level analysis. PlanWise, which we focus on in this report, is a system for analyzing a large set of forest management options in order to identify the best alternative using optimization based on user-defined objectives and constraints. RegWise, on the other hand, is based on a simulation approach where users pre-define the management for e.g. different forest types and landowners through management rules. The advantage of using PlanWise is the possibility to find the most cost-effective solution among a nearly continuous scale of possible alternatives. On the other hand, problems with a high degree of stochasticity are difficult to formulate and solve with in the PlanWise application. For such problems, RegWise could be a better alternative. Finally, PlanEval is a MCDA application designed to evaluate and rank forest plans or scenarios created in PlanWise or RegWise. PlanEval is also available as a web version intended for participatory planning processes. The aim of the report is to present how the Heureka PlanWise application can be used in different types of analysis for mapping and valuation of the future state of the forest, and forest-related indicators for ecosystem services and biodiversity. More specifically, we show which indicators can be assessed, how the type of input data determines what kind of analysis can be done, and how to assess trade-offs between conflicting objectives. We give several examples from recent research projects

Spatial aspects in the Heureka forest decision support system – an overview

This report is part of task 1.4 in work package 1 in the Mistral Digital Forests first phase (2018- 2022) research programme. The task concerns the use of information with complete spatial coverage (“wall-to-wall data”) in forest planning. Spatial aspects in forest planning are present if the value of a forest management activity or the character of a specific stand does not rest only on management or attributes of the stand itself but also on stands in the neighborhood. Traditionally in Swedish forestry spatial aspects, e.g. the spatial location of final fellings, has been handled in tactical planning and/or ecological landscape planning and not in the strategic planning.In this report, we thoroughly describe and present state-of-the art applications of the spatial functionality available in the Heureka forest DSS, and identify potential development tasks. These include to simplify the interface of the optimization model, reduce the build times associated with the formulation of various optimization problems, support efficient free solvers of optimization problems, improve GIS functionality, enable the use of open data in various forms of analysis using the Heureka systems and publish the Heureka system as open source

Considering future potential regarding structural diversity in selection of forest reserves

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species

How reserve selection is affected by preferences in Swedish boreal forests

It is important to consider the preferences of the various stakeholders involved when evaluating effective reserve selection, since it is largely their preferences that determine which of a given set of potential reserve networks that actually is "the best". We interviewed eight conservation planners working at the county administrative boards in each of the eight administrative counties covering boreal Sweden to establish weightings for different structural biodiversity indicators by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The subjective weightings were applied in a reserve selection model based on a goal programming (GP) approach. The structural indicators were derived from the Swedish National Forest Inventory (NFI) and used as proxy for biodiversity potential. A biodiversity indicator score, based on the values of those indicators, was maximized. The model adjusted this score ensuring that all indicators were represented in the selection, and further also adjusted the influence of the indicators based on the subjective weightings. We evaluated the GP approach by comparing it to a simple linear programming (LP) formulation, only maximizing the indicator richness. In all cases the model was limited either by a budget or an area. The biodiversity potential in young forests are often neglected within present conservation policies, however, the proportion of selected forest under 15 years was relatively high in all our cost-effective cases, varying between 32% and 60% using the individual planners subjective weightings, compared to 80% when using a simple LP model. The proportion of selected forest over 100 years varied between 69% and 85% in the area-effective cases using the subjective weightings, compared to 80% when using a simple LP model. Middle-aged forest was not favored in any of the selections, although they make up a substantial part of the total area. We conclude that there are differences in how conservation planners prioritize the indicators, and depending on how specific biodiversity indicators are weighted the age distribution of the selected reserves differs. This demonstrates the importance of considering how to establish appropriate weightings. It is also important to consider the, at least in our case, substantial difference in how common the different indicators are to ensure that the weightings get their intended impact on the selections. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Habitatmodeller och flermålsanalys

• Inom forskningsprogrammet Heureka utvecklas habitatmodeller för flera djur- och växtarter. • Habitatmodeller kan användas för att identifiera framtida flaskhalsar i mängd och fördelning av viktiga livsmiljöer för olika arter. • Det behövs verktyg för att ta hänsyn till både virkesproduktion och en viss mängd habitat i landskapet i planeringen. Ett sådant verktyg är flermålsanalys. • Flermålsanalys kan användas för att utvärdera olika planalternativ med hänsyn till olika arters habitatkrav. Den grundliga genomgången av situationen i en flermålsanalys ökar kunskapen om problemet vilket i sin tur kan leda till bättre slutlösningar

Långsiktig skoglig planering med hänsyn till produktion, ekologi, rekreation och rennäring i Vilhelmina kommun

I dagens skogspolitik ska sociala och ekologiska mål vägas lika tungt som produktionsmål. För att säkert veta att skogsbruket anpassas efter dessa mål är det viktigt att i ett tidigt planeringsskede välja en, för målen, lämplig skötsel. Denna arbetsrapport fokuserar på att beskriva de skogliga mål som finns för olika intressegrupper för Vilhelmina kommuns skogsinnehav samt påvisa den framtida effekt olika målsättningar kan ha på skogarnas tillstånd. Som en del i detta jämförs även resultatet från en målanpassad skötselplan med det tillstånd skogarna befinner sig i idag. För att undersöka vilka skogliga kriterier som är av särskilt intresse har deltagande planering använts där intressen rörande produktion, ekologi, rekreation och rennäring har representerats av en grupp på totalt nio personer. Baserat på givna preferenser har totalt 28 olika skötselplaner rangordnats beroende hur väl de svarat för olika mål. Genom denna rangordning har det gått att se hur olika mål påverkar varandra

Accounting for a Diverse Forest Ownership Structure in Projections of Forest Sustainability Indicators

In this study, we assessed the effect of a diverse ownership structure with different management strategies within and between owner categories in long-term projections of economic, ecological and social forest sustainability indicators, representing important ecosystem services, for two contrasting Swedish municipalities. This was done by comparing two scenarios: one where the diversity of management strategies was accounted for (Diverse) and one where it was not (Simple). The Diverse scenario resulted in a 14% lower total harvested volume for the 100 year period compared to the Simple scenario, which resulted in a higher growing stock and a more favorable development of the ecological indicators. The higher proportion of sparse forests and the lower proportion of clear-felled sites made the Diverse scenario more appropriate for delivering access to common outdoor recreation activities, while the Simple scenario projected more job opportunities. Differences between the scenarios were considerable already in the medium term (after 20 years of simulation). Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of management strategies employed by forest owners in medium- to long-term projections of the development of forest sustainability indicators

Improving dynamic treatment unit forest planning with cellular automata heuristics

We present a model for conducting dynamic treatment unit (DTU) forest planning using a heuristic cellular automata (CA) approach. The clustering of DTUs is driven by entry costs associated with treatments, thus we directly model the economic incentive to cluster. The model is based on the work presented in the literature but enhanced by adding a third phase to the CA algorithm where DTUs are mapped in high detail. The model allows separate but nearby forest areas to be included in the same DTU and shares the entry cost if they are within a defined distance. The model is applied to a typical long-term forest planning problem for a 1 182 ha landscape in northern Sweden, represented by 4 218 microsegments with an average size of 0.28 ha. The added phase increased the utility by 1.5-32.2%. The model produced consistent solutions-more than half of all microsegments were managed with the same treatment program in 95% of all solutions when multiple solutions were found